Link to Google Scholar profile
N.B. Publishing under H. M. Arnold prior to May 2014, and under H. M. Christensen after May 2014.
- In preparation:
Gagne, D. J., Christensen, H. M., Subramanian, A. and Monahan, A., Machine Learning for Stochastic Parameterization: Generative Adversarial Networks in the Lorenz ’96 Model. For submission to JAMES.
Christensen, H. M., Berner, J. and Yeager, S., The value of initialisation on decadal timescales: state dependent predictability in the CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble. For submission to Journal of Climate.
Berner, J., Christensen, H. M. and Sardeshmukh, P., Does ENSO regularity increase in a warming climate?, Submitted to Journal of Climate. (19/07/19)
Huntingford, C., Jeffers, E., Bonsall, M. B., Christensen, H. M., Lees, T. and Yang, H., Artificial Intelligence to aid Climate Change Research and Preparedness.. Submitted (01/07/19)
Christensen, H. M., Constraining stochastic parametrisation schemes using high-resolution simulations. Submitted to Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. (05/03/19)
 Yang, C., Christensen, H. M., Corti, S., von Hardenberg, J. and Davini, P., The impact of stochastic physics on the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the EC-Earth coupled model. Accepted in Climate Dynamics.
 Strømmen, K., Christensen, H. M., MacLeod, D., Juricke, S. and Palmer, T. N., 2019, Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3099–3118.
 Bessac, J., Monahan A., Christensen, H. M., and Weitzel, N., 2019 Stochastic parameterization of subgrid-scale velocity enhancement of sea surface fluxes. Mon. Weather. Rev., 147, 1447–1469.
[Nb. Apologies for typographical error in eq. 2.]
 Christensen, H. M. and Berner, J., 2019 From reliable weather forecasts to skilful climate prediction: a dynamical systems perspective. Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc., 145 (720), 1052-1069
 Roberts, M. J., et al (inc Christensen, H. M.), 2018, The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale., Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 99, 2341–2359
 Berner, J., Sardeshmukh, P. and Christensen, H. M., 2018, On the dynamical mechanisms governing El Niño-Southern Oscillation regularity. J. Climate, 31 (20), 8401–8419
 Christensen, H. M., Dawson, A., and Holloway, C., 2018, Forcing the IFS Single Column Model using high-resolution model simulations. JAMES, 10 (8), 1833-1857.
 Christensen, H. M., Dawson, A. and Holloway, C., 2018: Forcing files for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Single Column Model (SCM) over Indian Ocean/Tropical Pacific derived from a 10-day high resolution simulation. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, DOI: 10.5285/bf4fb57ac7f9461db27dab77c8c97cf2.
 Strømmen, K, Christensen, H. M., Berner, J. and Palmer, T. N., 2018, The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics 50(5-6) 2269-2282. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3749-z
 Leutbecher, M., et al, (inc Christensen, H. M.), 2017, Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision. Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc. 143(707) 2315–2339. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3094
 Christensen, H. M., Lock, S.-J., Moroz, I. M., and Palmer, T. N., 2017, Introducing Independent Patterns into the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies (SPPT) scheme. Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc., 143(706), 2168–2181. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3075
 Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., Corti, S., Christensen, H. M., Juricke, S., Subramanian, A., Watson, P. A. G., Weisheimer, A. and Palmer, T., 2017, Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. , 10, 1383–1402. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-1383-2017.
 Berner, J., et al. (26 authors including Christensen, H. M.), 2017, Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 98(3), 565–588. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1
 Christensen, H. M., Berner, J., Coleman, D., and Palmer, T. N., 2017, Stochastic Parametrisation and the El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate. 30(1), 17-38.
 Christensen, H. M., 2016, Contribution to the discussion on ‘Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings’ by W Ehm et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B. 78 (3), 505–562.
 Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Stochastic and perturbed parameter representations of model uncertainty in convection parametrization. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2525–2544.
 Christensen, H. M., 2015, Decomposition of a New Proper Score for Verification of Ensemble Forecasts. Mo. Weath. Review, 143, 1517–1532.
 Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Simulating Weather Regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model. Climate Dynamics. 44(7), 2195-2214
 Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 141(687), 538-549.
 Watson, P. A. G., Christensen, H. M., and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Does the ECMWF IFS convection parameterisation with stochastic physics correctly reproduce relationships between convection and the large-scale state? J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 236-242.
 Arnold, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2013, Stochastic Parametrizations and Model Uncertainty in the Lorenz ’96 System, Phil Trans R Soc A, 371: 20110479
 Libbrecht, K. G. and Arnold, H. M., 2009, Aerodynamic Stability and the Growth of Triangular Snow Crystal. The Microscope, 57(4), 157–163. (cover article)
Arnold, H. M., 2013, “Stochastic Parametrisation and Model Uncertainty”, Doctoral Thesis, University of Oxford.
- Technical Reports
Contributing Author, IPCC AR6 Chapter 4 “Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information”
Leutbecher, M., et al (28 authors including H. M. Christensen)., 2016. On stochastic representations of model uncertainties. ECMWF Scientific Advisory Committee paper, 45th session, 10–12 October 2016 ECMWF/SAC/45(16). (Available as ECMWF Technical Memorandum 785.)
- Meeting reports:
Zadra, A. et al (21 authors including H. M. Christensen), Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward, Accepted in Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.
Christensen, H. M., 2016, Can randomness reduce uncertainty? The use of stochastic physics in weather and climate prediction, presented at the Royal Astronomical Society Astronomy and Geophysics Meeting, November 2015. The Observatory (April 2016)
Arnold, H. M., 2013, Should weather and climate prediction models be deterministic or stochastic? Weather, 68(10), p264.
*Invitation declined due to travel restrictions during pregnancy/maternity leave
Atmospheric Physics Seminar, Imperial College London, UK. 12 Jun 2018.
NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Seminar, NCAR, Boulder CO, USA. 28 Mar 2017
NCAS-Climate Seminar, University of Reading, UK. 5 Dec 2016
Computational Statistics Seminar, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Germany, Mar 2016
Mathematics of the Planet Earth Seminar, ICL/U. Reading UK, 27 Jan 2017.
Dynamical Systems Seminar, University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA. Sep 2014
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Seminar, University of Oxford. Mar 2014
Centre for Atmospheric Science Seminar, University of Cambridge. Feb 2014
Internal Seminar Series, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Jan 2014
Invited Conference and Workshop Talks
*Invitation declined due to travel restrictions during pregnancy/maternity leave
AGU session on ‘Machine Learning for Climate Modeling and Inference’, San Francisco, USA. 9-13 Dec 2019. (unable to accept)*
Workshop on Economics & Climate, Soesterberg, the Netherlands. 15-17 July 2019. (unable to accept)*
Equadiff Conference, Leiden, the Netherlands. 8-12 July 2019. (unable to accept)*
International Workshop on Climate Prediction 2019: Past, Present, and Future, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 3 – 4 June 2019. (unable to accept)*
WGNE/PDEF Working Groups joint meeting, Tokyo, Japan. 9-12 Oct 2018
Conference on Predictability and multi-scale Prediction of High Impact Weather, Landshut, Germany. 9-12 Oct 2017
Water Systems Meeting, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, CO, USA. 17 Jan 2017
Clouds and Boundary Layer Processes Workshop, ETH Zürich, Switzerland. 13-15 Jun 2016
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA Dec 2015
Royal Astronomical Society Ordinary Meeting (Keith Runcorn Prize Lecture), London, UK Nov 2015
Conference on Meteorology And Climate – Modeling for Air Quality (unable to accept invitation), Sacramento, CA, USA. Sep 2015
OpenIFS user meeting, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Jun 2015
Stochastic Parametrisation Workshop, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Mar 2015
Workshop on Representing Uncertainty Across Timescales, Met Office, Exeter. Mar 2014
CWC/SRM Meeting on Global Climate Modelling, Institute of Physics, London. Feb 2014
Workshop on Stochastic Flows & Climate Modeling, Aspen, USA. 10-30 Jun 2012
Accepted Conference and Workshop Talks
OpenIFS Users Meeting, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 17-21 June 2019
European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2019
Workshop on Conservation Principles, Data, and Uncertainty in Atmosphere-Ocean Modelling, Potsdam, Germany, 2-4 April 2019
WWRP/WCRP S2S/S2D Conference, Boulder CO, USA. 17-21 Sep 2018
UK Climate Dynamics Workshop, Oxford, UK. 23-24 July 2018
European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 8-13 April 2018
Climate Variability and Change WG Meeting, NCAR, Boulder, USA, 29 Jan 2018
WGNE Workshop on Model Error, Montreal Canada, 19-21 Jun 2017
ECMWF/WWRP Workshop on Model Uncertainty, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 11-15 Apr 2016
HDCP2 conference, Understanding Clouds & Precipitation, Berlin, Germany, 15-19 Feb 2016
20th Annual CESM Workshop, Breckenridge, USA, 15-18 Jun 2015
Stochasticity & Organization of Tropical Convection workshop, Banff, Canada, 26-31 Apr 2015
European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 12-17 April 2015
European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2013
Workshop on Stochastic Modelling and Computing, University of Oxford, UK, 18-21 Mar 2013
Conference on Uncertainty in Computer Models, Sheffield, UK, 2-4 Jul 2012
IMA conference on Mathematics of the Climate System, Univ. Reading, UK, 13-15 Sep 2011