Publications

Link to Google Scholar profile

N.B. Publishing under H. M. Arnold prior to May 2014, and under H. M. Christensen after May 2014.

  • Submitted:

Berner, J., Sardeshmukh, P. and Christensen, H. M., On the dynamical mechanisms governing El Niño-Southern Oscillation regularity

Yang, C., Christensen, H. M., Corti, S., von Hardenberg, J. and Davini, P., The impact of stochastic physics on the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the EC-Earth coupled model. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

Christensen, H. M. and Berner, J., From reliable weather forecasts to skilful climate prediction: a dynamical systems perspective. Submitted to Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc.

  • Published:

[17] Christensen, H. M., Dawson, A., and Holloway, C. Forcing the IFS Single Column Model using high-resolution model simulations. Accepted in JAMES

[16] Roberts, M. J., et al (inc Christensen, H. M.), The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale. Accepted in Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.

[15] Christensen, H. M., Dawson, A. and Holloway, C., 2018: Forcing files for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Single Column Model (SCM) over Indian Ocean/Tropical Pacific derived from a 10-day high resolution simulation. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis,  DOI: 10.5285/bf4fb57ac7f9461db27dab77c8c97cf2.

[14] Strømmen, K, Christensen, H. M., Berner, J. and Palmer, T. N., 2018, The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics 50(5-6) 2269-2282. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3749-z

[13] Leutbecher, M., et al, (inc Christensen, H. M.), 2017, Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision. Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc. 143(707) 2315–2339. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3094

[12] Christensen, H. M., Lock, S.-J., Moroz, I. M., and Palmer, T. N., 2017, Introducing Independent Patterns into the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies (SPPT) scheme. Q. J. Roy Meteor Soc., 143(706), 2168–2181. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3075

[11] Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., Corti, S., Christensen, H. M., Juricke, S., Subramanian, A., Watson, P. A. G., Weisheimer, A. and Palmer, T., 2017, Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. , 10, 1383–1402. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-1383-2017.

[10] Berner, J., et al. (26 authors including Christensen, H. M.), 2017, Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 98(3), 565–588. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1

[9] Christensen, H. M., Berner, J., Coleman, D., and Palmer, T. N., 2017, Stochastic Parametrisation and the El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate. 30(1), 17-38.

[8] Christensen, H. M., 2016, Contribution to the discussion on ‘Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings’ by W Ehm et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B. 78 (3), 505–562.

[7] Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Stochastic and perturbed parameter representations of model uncertainty in convection parametrization. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2525–2544.

[6] Christensen, H. M., 2015, Decomposition of a New Proper Score for Verification of Ensemble Forecasts. Mo. Weath. Review, 143, 1517–1532.

[5] Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Simulating Weather Regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model. Climate Dynamics. 44(7), 2195-2214

[4] Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 141(687), 538-549.

[3] Watson, P. A. G., Christensen, H. M., and Palmer, T. N., 2015, Does the ECMWF IFS convection parameterisation with stochastic physics correctly reproduce relationships between convection and the large-scale state? J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 236-242.

[2] Arnold, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2013, Stochastic Parametrizations and Model Uncertainty in the Lorenz ’96 System, Phil Trans R Soc A, 371: 20110479

[1] Libbrecht, K. G. and Arnold, H. M., 2009, Aerodynamic Stability and the Growth of Triangular Snow Crystal. The Microscope, 57(4), 157–163.  (cover article)

  • Thesis:

Arnold, H. M., 2013, “Stochastic Parametrisation and Model Uncertainty”, Doctoral Thesis, University of Oxford.

  • Meeting reports:

Zadra, A. et al (21 authors including H. M. Christensen), Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward, Accepted in Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.

Christensen, H. M., 2016, Can randomness reduce uncertainty? The use of stochastic physics in weather and climate prediction, presented at the Royal Astronomical Society Astronomy and Geophysics Meeting, November 2015. The Observatory (April 2016)

Arnold, H. M., 2013, Should weather and climate prediction models be deterministic or stochastic? Weather, 68(10), p264.

 

Invited Conference Talks and Seminars

Atmospheric Physics Seminar, Imperial College London, UK. 12 Jun 2018.
Conference on Predictability and multi-scale Prediction of High Impact Weather, Landshut, Germany. 9-12 Oct 2017
NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division Seminar, NCAR, Boulder CO, USA. 28 Mar 2017
NCAS-Climate Seminar, University of Reading, UK. 5 Dec 2016
Clouds and Boundary Layer Processes Workshop, ETH Zürich, Switzerland. 13-15 Jun 2016
Computational Statistics Seminar, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Germany, Mar 2016
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA Dec 2015
Royal Astronomical Society Ordinary Meeting (Keith Runcorn Prize Lecture), London, UK Nov 2015
Conference on Meteorology And Climate – Modeling for Air Quality (unable to accept invitation), Sacramento, CA, USA. Sep 2015
OpenIFS user meeting, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Jun 2015
Stochastic Parametrisation Workshop, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Mar 2015
Dynamical Systems Seminar Series, University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA. Sep 2014
Workshop on Representing Uncertainty Across Timescales, Met Office, Exeter. Mar 2014
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Seminar Series, University of Oxford. Mar 2014
CWC/SRM Meeting on Global Climate Modelling, Institute of Physics, London. Feb 2014
Centre for Atmospheric Science Seminar Series, University of Cambridge. Feb 2014
Internal Seminar Series, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Jan 2014